Open-Air Baseball Parks
The Impacts of Weather Conditions
Jason M Graham
University of Scranton
Initial Research Question
Each of the thirty Major League Baseball (MLB) teams plays in one of thirty stadiums or baseball parks.
Of the thirty MLB baseball stadiums, 22 of them are open-air.
We would like to know if changing climate and weather patterns might have an effect on either team performance or game attendance.
MLB Parks
Home Game and Weather Data
Table 1: Fenway Park Home Game and Weather Data
| 1950-04-18 |
0 |
BOS |
15 |
10 |
31822 |
208 |
-5 |
NW |
284.8500 |
80.2500 |
18.29375 |
53.06000 |
1950 |
4 |
18 |
0 |
| 1950-04-19 |
1 |
BOS |
3 |
6 |
25425 |
150 |
3 |
W |
284.8813 |
85.9375 |
17.17500 |
53.11625 |
1950 |
4 |
19 |
1 |
| 1950-04-19 |
2 |
BOS |
16 |
7 |
32860 |
190 |
-9 |
NW |
284.8813 |
85.9375 |
17.17500 |
53.11625 |
1950 |
4 |
19 |
0 |
| 1950-04-28 |
0 |
BOS |
1 |
4 |
5333 |
116 |
3 |
W |
282.8500 |
90.5625 |
19.40625 |
49.46001 |
1950 |
4 |
28 |
1 |
Game Outcome Variables
Game Attendance and Duration
Climate and Weather Variables
Red Sox Runs
Red Sox Wins
Red Sox Game Duration
Red Sox Game Attendance
Yearly Wins at Home
Weather Over Time
Model Estimates for Win/Loss
![]()
Figure 1: Bootstrap estimates for logistic regression coefficients for win/loss.
Win/Loss Model Predictions
![]()
Figure 2: Bootstrap predictions for logistic regression model for win/loss.
Model Estimates for Red Sox Runs
![]()
Figure 3: Bootstrap estimates for linear regression coefficients for number of runs scored by Red Sox.
Attendance Predictors
![]()
Bootstrap estimates for linear regression coefficients for game attendance.
Attendance Variable Importance
![]()
Variable importance measures for predictors of game attendance.
Attendance Predictions
![]()
Predicted versus observed game attendance.
Duration Predictors
![]()
Bootstrap estimates for linear regression coefficients for game duration.
Duration Variable Importance
![]()
Variable importance measures for game duration.
Duration Predictions
![]()
Predicted versus observed game duration.
Conclusions
lack of evidence that weather conditions have a significant impact on team performance or game outcome
weather conditions may have an impact on game attendance
weather conditions do not appear to have a significant impact on game duration
there is evidence that the number of runs scored by the home team and visiting team may have an impact on game duration